Prediction of the First Variceal Haemorrhage

We followed 87 cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices and without previous hemorrhage for a mean period of 24 mo to prospectively evaluate the occurance of variceal bleeding within (early) or after (late) 6 mo from entry and the contribution of portal Doppler ultrasound parameters to the prediction of early and late hemorrhage. Clinical, biochemical, endoscopic and portal Doppler ultrasound parameters were recorded at entry. Variceal bleeding occurred in 22 patients (25.3%). Nine (40.9%) bled within the first 6 mo. Cox regression analysis identified variceal size, cherry-red spots, serum bilirubin and congestion index of the portal vein (the ratio of portal vein [cross-sectional area] and portal blood flow velocity) as the only independent predictors of first variceal hemorrhage. Discriminant analysis was used to find the prognostic index cut off points to identify patients who bled within 6 mo (prognostic group 1) or after 6 mo (prognostic group 2) or remained free of bleeding (prognostic group 3). The cumulative proportion of patients correctly classified was 73% in prognostic group 1, 47% in prognostic group 2 and more than 80% in prognostic group 3. The addition of Doppler ultrasound flowmetry to clinical, biochemical and endoscopic parameter only improved the classification of patients with early bleeding

Tests d'évaluation du degré de pollution des sédiments marins : effets sur la production de larves et la consommation d'algues chez le copépode Tigriopus brevicornis

L'eau interstitielle ou l'eau de lessivage d'un sédiment est mise en contact avec des lots de 50 femelles ovigères du copépode Tigriopus brevicornis. Notons que ce microcrustacé marin est sensible à la pollution mais résistant aux caractéristiques physico-chimiques des types d'eaux testés (salinité et température notamment). On évalue ensuite les effets de ces eaux sur la production larvaire en 10 jours et sur l'ingestion en 4 jours par les copépodes d'une suspension de Phaeodactylum tricornutum. Nous observons ici, pour des lots de sédiments provenant de la région de Marseille, des réductions de la production de larves variant de 61 % (Les Embiez) à 90 % (Vaine). Le test "consommation d'algues", bien moins sensible aboutit pour les mêmes stations à des réductions de 19 % à 35 %. Le test "production larvaire" du fait de sa plus grande sensibilité doit être préféré au test "consommation d'algues".Most pollutants discharged into the sea are found in sediments, generally after temporary fixation in planktonic organisms. The slightest discharge leaves a trace in the soft bottoms. Thus, it may be said that these behave as good "data storage indicators" testifying to the degree of pollution present. Sediments therefore represent a privileged field in research on the state of pollution in the aquatic ecosystem. How can the degree of pollution in this field be evaluated?A chemical analysis of pollutants in sediments is a good means of investigation to detect of degradation in the quality of waters. Most pollutants however are difficult to detect and dose. Moreover, in many cases dosage is tedious and costly. It is from this point of view that biological assays were considered essential.Interstitial water or water used to wash a sediment was placed in contact with batches of 50 ovigerous females of the copepod Tigriopus brevicornis. This marine microcrustacean is known to be sensitive to pollution, though resisting the physical and chemical effects of the waters tested (salinity and temperature, in particular). An evaluation was the made on the effects of these waters; first on larval production during a period of ten days, and then on ingestion by copepeds of a suspension of Pheodactylum tricornutum for four days.The results obtained here with batches of sediment from the Marseilles region show that the larval production test is the most sensitive one. Indeed, the inhibition percentages found by the larval production test range from 35 to 100 % (figure 1), whereas they vary from 5 to 55 % with the algae consumption test (figure 2). With the larval production test, it is possible to classify sediments according to their ecological quality.From this test, moreover, the presence of harmful substances in the sediments can be rapidly detected. Being reproductible and not expensive, it supplements the far too restrictive traditional chemical analyses. When applied to estuarine sedimentary zones, combined with other tests, it should help establish a quality coefficient for sediments based on experimentation

Reasoning About a Simulated Printer Case Investigation with Forensic Lucid

In this work we model the ACME (a fictitious company name) "printer case incident" and make its specification in Forensic Lucid, a Lucid- and intensional-logic-based programming language for cyberforensic analysis and event reconstruction specification. The printer case involves a dispute between two parties that was previously solved using the finite-state automata (FSA) approach, and is now re-done in a more usable way in Forensic Lucid. Our simulation is based on the said case modeling by encoding concepts like evidence and the related witness accounts as an evidential statement context in a Forensic Lucid program, which is an input to the transition function that models the possible deductions in the case. We then invoke the transition function (actually its reverse) with the evidential statement context to see if the evidence we encoded agrees with one's claims and then attempt to reconstruct the sequence of events that may explain the claim or disprove it.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, 7 listings, TOC, index; this article closely relates to arXiv:0906.0049 and arXiv:0904.3789 but to remain stand-alone repeats some of the background and introductory content; abstract presented at HSC'09 and the full updated paper at ICDF2C'11. This is an updated/edited version after ICDF2C proceedings with more references and correction